After thinking about this, I wondered what the lead time was between the Xbox 360 reveal and the actual release of hardware to the public. While researching, I found an article trumpeting the launch of the 360 and had to have a laugh at what had changed:
Every Xbox 360 game is designed for high-definition, wide-screen televisions. Regardless of the television Xbox 360 connects to, gamers will experience smooth, cinematic experiences that far exceed anything they’ve seen or felt in games before.I think we can all agree that the current generation of consoles does not push our 1080p HDTVs to their limits; most high-performance games still run at 720p, or lower.
Xbox 360 also features software so smart it remembers what gamers have achieved, continually evolving and enhancing the game experience.Achievements must have been such a huge thing at the time (I certainly don't remember), but these days such features are expected, thanks to their success as part of the Xbox platform. Since it's release the software on the Xbox 360 has continued to evolve; by the current standards, the original Xbox dashboard seems so quaint.
Players can express their digital identity through their Gamer Profile; connect with friends anytime, anywhere through Xbox Live voice chat; send and receive text and voice message; and access Xbox Live Marketplace to download demos and trailers along with new game levels, maps, weapons, vehicles, skins, classic arcade and card and board games, community-created content, and more to the detachable Xbox 360 hard drive — all right out of the box at no extra cost.I don't think anyone could have predicted how much of a success Xbox Live would be with it's tiered pricing plan. The value proposition for gamers seems to have paid off, with the platform receiving regular updates and additions such as party chat and the various dashboard redesigns.
Overall I think Microsoft can chalk the 360 up as a success; they didn't beat out Nintendo on pure sales or profit this generation, but I believe they delivered value and quality through experience on their platform. The platform features that are still recognizable on the platform to this day, such as voice chat and the Live Marketplace, are a testament to the decisions that were made correctly on day 1. Progress since then has been supported through continual investment into the platform and community.
Back to my original point. the official announcement for the Xbox 360 was made in May 2005, and the console was released about 6 months later, in November. This gives a lead-time of about 6 months over their official announcement. Given the stage of rumors around development of the next generation console, it seems unlikely that Microsoft would announce and release a console this year. My bet would be on a possible hint this year at E3, even if just to give people something to look forward to, with a reveal at E3 2012 and possible launch before Christmas 2012.
Of course this is all pure speculation! As much as would all like to know when new hardware will be arriving, it seems for now we will simply have to wait.
